August’s housing numbers are in, and the market took a step back. Sales dropped from July and fell below last year’s pace, while more homes came onto the market.
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales totaled 363,000 in August, down -9.5% from a revised July figure of 401,000 (revised up from the initially reported 400,000), and down -3.5% year over year compared to August 2025’s 376,000. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) came in at 3.98 million, down -2.0% from July’s 4.06 million and down -1.2% from a year ago.
Inventory climbed. NAR reported 1.62 million units of housing inventory in August, or 4.9 months of supply, up +3.2% from July and up +5.9% year over year. Zillow’s count of active listings tells a similar story at 1.41 million, up +0.2% from July and up +3.0% from a year ago.
Prices are still rising, just more slowly. NAR put the national median existing home price at $429,100, up +1.6% year over year, marking the 38th straight month of annual gains.
On the financing side, Fannie Mae still expects 30-year mortgage rates to average 6.5% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027, unchanged from last month. The Mortgage Bankers Association now projects 6.8% in 2026, up from 6.7% last month, and 6.7% in 2027.
Current Forecasts
Forecasts for 2026 Home Sales (September ’26 forecast)
- NAR: +4.0% (4.22 million existing home sales vs. 4.06 million), revised April 2026
- MBA: -0.1% (4.75 million total home sales vs. 4.76 million)
- Fannie Mae: -1.3% (4.69 million total home sales vs. 4.75 million)
Forecasts for 2027 Home Sales (September ’26 forecast)
- MBA: +3.8% (4.93 million total home sales vs. 4.75 million)
- Fannie Mae: +4.1% (4.88 million total home sales vs. 4.69 million)
MBA Forecast for Mortgage Originations (September ’26 forecast)
- 2026 Total Mortgage Originations: +9.7% (5.53 million loans vs. 5.04 million)
- Purchase: -1.3% (3.54 million loans vs. 3.59 million)
- Refi: +36.7% (1.99 million vs. 1.46 million)
- 2027 Total Mortgage Originations: -2.2% (5.41 million loans vs. 5.53 million)
- Purchase: +2.4% (3.63 million loans vs. 3.54 million)
- Refi: -10.1% (1.79 million vs. 1.99 million)
Bottom line for inspectors
Sales momentum faded in August, and the 2026 outlooks from MBA and Fannie Mae both moved lower. With inventory growing, buyers have more options and less urgency, which can mean a slower path from search to signed contract.
Rising rate forecasts add another reason for buyers to move carefully. Keep your inspection calendar flexible and your communication with agents and clients proactive so you’re ready whether bookings rebound this fall or stay soft.