Home sales forecasts show signs of a cool-off.
In August, Fannie Mae called for a dip in 2025 sales (-0.1%), while the average forecast has slipped from +11.8% in January 2024 to just +1.4% last month, showing how much the outlook has cooled in less than two years.
For solo and small home inspection shops, the numbers signal a changing market where flexibility and clear reporting will matter more than ever.
August highlights for July data
- Existing home sales for July 2025 totaled 388,000 (non-seasonally adjusted), -0.8% from June and -0.5% YoY. Year-to-date existing home sales are -1.3%.
- Inventory rose to 1.55 million homes from 1.53 million and +15.7% year-over-year.
- HouseCanary reports a +7.7% increase in contract volume. Closed prices increased +3.4% while price cuts increased +25.7%.
- The national median existing home price increased to $422,400, a +0.2% YoY gain, with the Midwest (+3.9%) and West (-1.4%) as the largest changes.
- Mortgage rates averaged 6.8% in June, with expectations for a slight decline to around 6.6% by year-end, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Current forecasts
Forecasts for 2025 home sales (August ’25 forecast)
- NAR: +3% (4.18 million existing home sales vs. 4.06 million)
- MBA: +1.3% (4.82 million total home sales vs. 4.76 million)
- Fannie: -0.1% (4.74 million total home sales vs. 4.75 million)
Forecasts for 2026 home sales (August ’25 forecast)
- NAR: +14% (4.77 million existing home sales vs. 4.18 million)
- MBA: +7.5% (5.19 million total home sales vs. 4.82 million)
- Fannie: +10.3% (5.23 million total home sales vs. 4.74 million)
MBA forecast for mortgage originations (August ’25 forecast)
- 2025 Total Mortgage Originations: +22.4% (5.6 million loans vs. 4.57 million)
- Purchase: -1.9% (3.46 million loans vs. 3.53 million)
- Refi: +104.3% (2.14 million vs. 1.05 million)
- 2026 Total Mortgage Originations: +11.2% (6.22 million loans vs. 5.6 million)
- Purchase: +5.6% (3.65 million loans vs. 3.46 million)
- Refi: +25.9% (2.69 million vs. 2.14 million)
Why it matters for inspectors like you
For solo and small inspection shops, a bigger pool of listings (+15.7% inventory) can offset slower sales. With more sellers adjusting prices (+25.7%), buyers are looking for confidence before moving forward. Quick, no-nonsense reports can help you earn that trust and win the call when the market feels uncertain.